美国股市上周上涨重新关注基本面后

大卫喜悦 - 首席市场策略,阿默普莱斯金融
每周市场评论 - 一月13,2019

The risk aversion that prevailed in the wake of the U.S. drone strike in Iraq dissipated quickly last week, replaced by a focus on fundamentals that resulted in stocks resuming their ascent. The S&P 500® 指数上周上涨0.9%,超过0.2%,扭转了前一周其损失。布伦特原油回落以及,下跌$ 3.62至每桶64.98 $,凡在12月中旬最后一次。 VIX指数下跌,而黄金掉了它的高,但仍设法一周小幅上涨,就像十年期国债收益率。从1.79关闭了本周在1.82%,高于前一周,但是从1.87 ITS周三的高点回落。无论我们已经看到过去的,现在的美国与伊朗对抗,还有待观察。

美国数据是软的,但持续走强表示对于消费者而言,制造

上周的经济日历由月就业报告,其中排在稍低于预期,但强大到足以不过劳动力市场的建议仍然很健康头条新闻。经济创造了新的145000非农就业岗位。这是低于16万层的共识,和之前的两个月整体是14,000以及向下修正。此外,增长的速度每小时工资在十一月放缓至2.9%,去年同期,低于3.1%。平均每周工作时间在11月的长度是由0.1小时向下修正,12月保持那里。总之,这些数据点推荐在收入增长工作者一定节制。该报告是足够强大,但是,在3.5%,保持失业率,减少就业不足率为6.7%。

还有其他一些令人鼓舞的经济报告的最后一周。无论是闪存和非制造业ISM报告上升的月份,如做月工厂订单前运输。而彭博消费者舒适指数上升至最高水平,因为9月的2000(从那里,虽然花了急剧暴跌网络经济泡沫破裂)。在未来一周的日历加载在物价,房价和零售销售报告,但重点将是收益。

接下来,所有的目光转向第四季度财报

据FactSet,第四季度财报预计现在由2%下降。与典型的合计结果超出了预期,其含义是该季度产生一个小的增益。收入预计2.6%的速度增长。1 With earnings growth sluggish throughout 2019, the 28 percent gain in the S&P 500 index last year has pushed the trailing P/E to 21.8X and the forward P/E to 18.7X according to Bloomberg data. Both are well above their historical averages. Analysts expect earnings growth in 2020 to be approximately 9 percent, but that could prove optimistic. But even if that level of growth materializes, will it be enough to push stock prices higher, or simply allow them to grow into their already inflated valuations? A lot will depend on whether the global economy improves throughout the year, and whether the manufacturing sector can return to relative stability. The Fed appears to be on hold indefinitely, and that will provide an important support for stocks. But earnings matter and will need to start growing again at some point if stocks are to push higher in the new year.